Francly My Dear, I Give A Damn

My take on the Francoeur trade?

I'm ok with it. A colleague told me he thought Ryan Church maxxed out, and comped him with Todd Hollandsworth. And I'd have traded Todd Hollandsworth for Jeff Francoeur without any hestitation.

I love the walk-off deterrent capabilities of Francoeur's throwing arm (unnoticed this season is how much opposing teams have run on the Mets) and that alone is probably worth more runs per year than we know.

I like that we took someone who usually hurts us and brought him on our side (can we do the same for Brandon Phillips?)

I like that he's a good, positive guy, though he's probably gonna be a bit shellshocked when he checks out the deader-than-dead atmosphere on Saturday night. I like that he's only 25, and he's a couple years away from free agency.

I like that he's got two career walk-off home runs, including one off "The Hat" (Chad Cordero, for those unfamiliar).

What makes me a little skittish? Well, that's mostly the numbers. A lot of people harp on Francoeur's low (awful) on-base percentage, but I wanna go one column to the right, and check out his slugging percentage.

Jeff Francoeur played 155 games last year and slugged .359. Tim Bogar slugged .359 for the Mets once. The difference is that Tim Bogar was never expected to be anything but a No. 8 hitter. Francoeur, in the current state of things, should be hitting No. 4 or No. 5.

Francoeur's slugging percentage dropped 100 points from his first season to his second, to .449. Guys who hit 29 home runs and drive in 103 runs aren't supposed to slug .449.

Since the start of the 20th century, 759 players have hit at least 29 home runs and driven in at least 103 runs in a season. Out of those 759...

The 200th-highest slugging percentage was Reggie Jackson's .608 (1969).

The 400th-highest slugging percentage was Mike Piazza's .561 (1993)

The 600th-highest slugging percentage was Mike Schmidt's .524 (1983)

The 759th-and-worst slugging percentage was Jeff Francoeur's .449 (2006).

So something's clearly amiss with this guy. Actually, a lot's amiss, if you look at his strikeout numbers. But at this point, I'll reserve judgment, because I'm not convinced that the current roster could get to .449 if you added all their slugging percentages together.

True Metcoeurs know...Three Mets have slugged .449 in a season...Lee Mazzilli (1979), Keith Hernandez (1984) and Joe McEwing (2001)

Blast from the Past

You probably know about the Tom Seaver connection to July 9. Or you'll read about it somewhere.

But July 9 is important for other reasons in Mets history...

For Ya Gotta Believe...

http://www.metswalkoffs.com/2009/05/believing-in-myself.html

For Marathon Men

http://www.metswalkoffs.com/2007/07/queens-are-flushing.html

And For Coming Back From Injury

http://www.metswalkoffs.com/2006/02/doubting-thomas.html

Enjoy the flashbacks. Working on some other projects and enjoying the miracle that was "Ball on the Base."

'Torre'ntial

Dodgers skipper Joe Torre is closing in on 100 regular-season wins against the Mets. He entered the series with 98.

If you're compiling a list of the grimmest innings in Mets history (and we've had our share in 2009), the 2nd inning from Torre's first win against them would rank high on the list. The date was May 25, 1982.

Mike Scott was pitching for the Mets and this was in his pre-splitter days, so he was very hittable. Scott's best days were a few years ahead. This would be one of his worst.

Here's how Scott's second inning went.

Home Run
Single
Triple
Sac Fly
Double
Single
Double

Just for good measure, Scott was replaced here by Tom Hausman. The first batter Hausman faced homered.

The damage amounted to eight runs, nine hits, an error, and three men left on base, and the final score was Braves 10, Mets 2. The New York Times noted it was the biggest Braves inning against the Mets since 1966, when they scored eight runs in the third inning of a 17-1 win.

To show how times have changed: The newspapers noted that Torre chomped on a cigar after winning this game. I'm guessing if he gets to 100 in this series, he'll instead be spotted sipping green tea.

The Torrential Mets fan knows...Joe Torre had a pair of walk-off hits against the Mets in 1967, including a walk-off home run against Tom Seaver.

Our Jackson 5

Al Jackson was 43-80 with a 4.26 ERA and his reward for pitching for the 1962 Mets was a 9-game stint with the 1969 club.

Darrin Jackson hit .195 in 87 at-bats for the 1993 Mets. The first 11 games in which he played, the Mets lost.

Roy Lee Jackson was 2-9 in 40 appearances for the 1977-1980 Mets. His highlight was a 12-strikeout complete game in Cincinnati for his final Mets win.

Jackson Todd is a cancer survivor who went 3-6 for the 1977 Mets. That May 22, he beat the Reds in relief, a stint that included a bases-loaded escape, and the retiring of Pete Rose twice.

Reginald C. Jackson went 9-8 for the 1983 Lynchburg Mets, a Class-A team whose roster included Dwight Gooden and Lenny Dykstra.

Manny for Beltran

Tuesday is the 45th anniversary of the last walk-off home run in an All-Star Game (Johnny Callison).

I would like to see another one.

Therefore, I would call upon the good folks at Major League Baseball to make Manny Ramirez the injury-replacement selection for Carlos Beltran.

In other words, let Manny be Manny.

I realize this would be somewhat unpopular, and from a moral standpoint, I'm opposed, but I think it's a logical decision given the circumstances.

The National League has not won an All-Star Game since 1996. The National League gets pummeled in interleague play every year. They need to do something to change the mojo.

The last time an NL team had home-field advantage in the World Series was in 2001. Think the Diamondbacks win Game 7 (reminder: it was a walk-off) if they're in Yankee Stadium?

I don't.

I root for a National League team. If that team makes the World Series (ha!), I'd like it to have home-field advantage. And I'm willing to be a sellout to make it happen. This time it counts, right?

Let me put it to you this way. Let's say we get to a similar stage that we got to in last year's All-Star Marathon. Let's say we're late in the game, and it's a close game, and that Charlie Manuel has already used top bench bats Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, or that lefty Brian Fuentes is pitching.

Who do I want batting? Hunter Pence, Brad Hawpe, or Manny Ramirez?

Even though Manny Ramirez is a lousy hitter against Mariano Rivera (.211 BA) and a dreadful batsman against Joe Nathan (0-for-7, 5 K), I'd still take my chances.

If that doesn't work, can we compromise on Manny's teammate, Andre Ethier? Ethier is tied for the MLB lead with 4 walk-off hits this season.

True Mets fans being Mets fans know... Manny Ramirez hasn't hit a regular-season walk-off home run since 1996, but he did it one against Francisco Rodriguez to win Game 2 of the 2007 NLCS.

Mets at the Midpoint

The 2009 Mets are 39-42 through their first 81 games. They're halfway home.

* The only other Mets team to start 39-42: The 1980 Mets. (final record 67-95)

* The 2008 Mets were 1 game better (40-41). That's ok. These Mets are used to being 1 game behind.

* The 39 is almost halfway between the best (56 in 1986) and worst (23 in 1962, 1964) midpoint win totals in Mets history.

* The 1973 Mets started 35-46. They won the NL East and got to Game 7 of the World Series.

* Of the Mets teams with 39 wins or less at the season's midpoint, the only ones to finish with a winning record were the 1973 and 2001 teams.

* The 1969 Mets fared best over their final 81 games, going 53-28, one win better than the 1985 and 1986 teams.

* To get to 90 wins, the current Mets need to go 51-30 (a 102-win pace). Only 4 Mets teams have played at that pace over the second half of the season- the previously mentioned 1969, 1985, and 1986 teams, and the 1999 squad.

* To get to 90 losses, the current Mets need to go 33-48 (a 66-win pace) in their final 81 games. The Mets have done that, or worse, 14 times previously.

* The best 81-game stretch that the Mets have ever played was in 1986. From April 18-July 18, they went 58-23 (you get the same W-L if you make it April 14-July 17, but I'm simplifying).

* In summary:

Best Records at Midpoint
Mets History

56-25 in 1986
52-29 in 1988
48-33 in 2006
48-33 in 1990
47-34 in 1969, 1972, 1984, and 1991

Follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/metswalkoffs

TWIMNOTES

OK, so I'm trying out this Twitter thing and looking for my hook.

For now, that's gonna be TWIMNOTES.

TWIMNOTES, at least for now, will be defined as short-form Met-related nuggets. It may be related to This Date in Mets History, it may be some statistical minutiae that doesn't warrant a full blog, it may be a silly Mets pun, it may be something where I have 2 minutes to write instead of 30, it may be a walk-off alert.

I may do one a day. I may do five. Depends on my mood, and if I find that people like them. I won't neglect my blog to do them. Think of them as a healthy, non-steroidal Mets supplement.

I'm calling them TWIMNOTES as a tribute to the "TWIB Notes" that ran on This Week in Baseball.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/metswalkoffs.

What Would Schulz Say?

Charlie Brown: "Why does my team keep losing? Why? Why? Why?"

Lucy: "Because we're no good...because we're no good...because we're no good."

------------------

Linus: "I've been going over our team records, Charlie Brown. We lost every game this season."

Charlie Brown: "Maybe we're building character."

--------------------------------------

Charlie Brown: "All right. Let's get together out there! Let's start calling for those fly balls!"

Lucy: "I think maybe perhaps hopefully if everything goes right and nothing unpredictable happens, possibly I got it."

Charlie Brown: "That isn't exactly what I meant."

-----------------------------------------------

Charlie Brown: "Just look at this will you? Our team isn't ready to start a new season. We're just not ready. Where did the time go? Why does the season have to start so soon?"

Linus: "Charlie Brown, our team wouldn't be ready if the season started in November."

-------------------------------

Charlie Brown: "Two hundred and ninety three to nothing and it's only the fourth inning."

Schroeder: "Well you know what they say, Charlie Brown. It's not who wins that counts, it's how you play the game."

Charlie Brown: "But why do we have to play so lousy?"

Follow Me on Twitter

You can now follow me on Twitter, under the name "Metswalkoffs."

A blast from July 4th past can be found here:

http://www.metswalkoffs.com/2005/07/fireworks-knight.html

The Iron Horse's Walk-Off HR History

I don't usually write about members of the opposing New York team, but I'll make an exception as we approach a 70th anniversary of note (the famous speech at Yankee Stadium) to reference the three walk-off home runs hit by Lou Gehrig.

August 25, 1932 vs Indians
One of the fun things about reading old-time newspaper game stories is that you get writings such as this from John Drebinger of the New York Times.

"As every good hunter knows, there is nothing like a trusty double-barreled gun to bring down big game, and it took all of two shots, right on the mark, for the Yankees to overcome the Indians in the second game of the current series at the Stadium yesterday."

Drebinger was referring to the home runs of both Msrs Ruth and Gehrig, the latter of which ended a contest that, amazingly enough, was played to nine-inning conclusion in 92 minutes.

June 20, 1934 vs Indians
Walk-off home runs were celebrated a little bit differently in Gehrig's playing days. A photo with the game story, which details how the Yankees swept the Walter Johnson-managed Indians, shows Gehrig crossing the plate after hitting his walk-off home run. There is no throng awaiting to do the celebratory bunny hop, but merely one person (the batboy perhaps?) who holds out his palm for a greeting.

September 8, 1937 vs Red Sox
But then again, maybe the pictures don't tell the whole story. It was quite the doubleheader sweep for Gehrig and the Yankees against the Red Sox on this date.

In the opener, The Iron Horse scored the winning run on Myril Hoag's single.

In the nightcap, the Yankees staged the kind of epic comeback for which they are known well. Trailing 6-1 in the ninth inning, they scored eight times, all with two outs, to win. Joe Cronin's two errors on the same potential game-ending play opened the door and the Yankees took advantage big-time.

Joe Dimaggio singled in the tying run and then Gehrig followed with a three-run blast on a 3-2 pitch.

As the story notes: "He had to fight his way around the bases through a happy swarm of fans."

A Long Day's Journey Into Later In The Day

I'll give a very gentle fistbump to Fernando Tatis (so not to ding him up any more), as well as Ryan Church and Brian Stokes for Mets extra-inning road win #181 (including postseason). Remember that fistbumps are awarded for all last at-bat wins this season, and are logged in the right-hand margin of this blog.

* It was the 2nd road extra-inning win this season, the other coming on June 5 against the Nationals.

* It was the Mets 20th extra-inning road win in Pittsburgh. It was their first extra-inning road win in Pittsburgh since an 8-7 win on September 18, 2004.

* The only other Mets road extra-inning win to take place on a July 2 took place in 1969. The Mets beat the Cardinals in St. Louis, 6-4, in 14 innings.

* The Mets have had four walk-off losses on July 2, so they were walking a rather dangerous line late this afternoon.

* The Mets had a player get hit by multiple pitches for the 24th time (Damion Easley had it happen twice last season). Fernando Tatis tied a club record with the pair of plunks.

* The only other Met to be plunked twice in a game by a Pirate: Major fistbumps if you knew the answer was Carlos Mendoza, 1997. Mendoza's Mets career lasted 12 at-bats.

* Tatis also had 3 hits. That's the most hits by a Met, who was also hit by 2 pitches in the same game.

* Tatis's newspaper box score line will read 4-4-3-2 (AB-R-H-RBI). He's only the third player in Mets history to post a 4-4-3-2. The others are Derek Bell (2000) and Darryl Strawberry (1988).

* Not quite as rare: The 6-2-3-2 newspaper line. Ryan Church becomes the 8th Met with a 6-2-3-2, the first since Joe McEwing in 2001. The Mets are 8-0 when they have a player with a 6-2-3-2 newspaper line.

The truly wet Mets fan knows...Francisco Rodriguez matched a career-high (regular season/postseason) by throwing 46 pitches. The Mets have had a lot of relievers earn wins by throwing that many pitches, but the last to do so whom you could call the closer was Randy Myers. In a 3-2 win over the Giants on May 19, 1989, Myers threw 51 pitches in relief.

The only other time Rodriguez threw as many as 46 pitches in a game was in Game 6 of the 2002 World Series when he allowed 2 runs in 2 2/3 innings.

Coincidentally, just as the Mets came back from 5 down to win this game, the Angels came back from 5 down to win that one, 6-5, and force Game 7 against the Giants.

Yovani Hard-luck O

I built a 1-0 Mets wins database a few months ago just for the purpose of finding the answers to questions such as:

What pitchers have lost multiple 1-0 games to the Mets in the same season?

Yovani Gallardo joins two others.

Hall of Famer Ferguson Jenkins: July 11 and September 11, 1968

and

Nelson Briles: July 27, September 18, and September 29, 1972

For more information on the history of the previous 115 1-0 Mets wins, check out

http://www.metswalkoffs.com/2009/05/one-nil.html

* Gallardo also makes it an even dozen times that a pitcher has struck out 12+ Mets and lost the game. The last, as was mentioned on the SNY broadcast, was John Smoltz in Willie Randolph's first managerial win in 2005.

One pitcher is on the list twice, and while you probably have heard reference to Steve Carlton's 1969 effort in which he struck out 19 and lost to the Mets (on 2 home runs by Ron Swoboda), you may not be as familiar with his other effort.

On September 16, 1981 (12 years and a week after the 19-K loss), Carlton struck out 15 Mets in the back end of a doubleheader. Carlton finished one whiff shy of Bob Gibson's career NL strikeout mark (he'd pass it and then some), and one run shy on the scoreboard.

The Mets won this one in dramatic, walk-up fashion. Carlton got his final two strikeouts of the game, but in between them, catcher John Stearns popped one just inside the left field foul pole for a go-ahead two-run home run. It was the first home run for Stearns in more than two years. The Mets finished 5-4 winners when our favorite, Neil Allen, got a pair of clutch outs with the tying run on second in the ninth.

Grand Slam Something

There are few questions that the folks at Retrosheet can't answer. So when I asked about plays in which four runs scored without the scoring being a grand slam, David Smith came through big-time.

Since the Mets inception in 1962, that play has happened 54 times, with Ryan Braun being the most recent slammer. It was the fourth involving the Mets in some manner, and the first AGAINST them in 35 years.

That doesn't include the time it happened in my little league career, a series of blunders by our team, the Cougars, against the No. 2 team, the Panthers. Fortunately, we rallied from the 4-0 first-inning hole to win, 5-4, on a walk-off hit, the most difficult win of our unbeaten season.

As for the Mets, here are the details on the other instances.

Howard Johnson- Mets at Expos, April 19, 1992
New York Times writer Joe Sexton called it a "grand scram." With the Mets trailing, 4-3 in the 7th inning, Johnson lined a bases-loaded double into the left field corner. Expos left fielder Ivan Calderon could not field the ball cleanly and Johnson was able to circle the bases completely.

"By second base, my mind was made up. Nothing was going to stop me," Johnson said afterwards.

The play sparked a rally that led to an eventual 11-6 Mets win.

Ivan Murrell- Braves at Mets, June 18, 1974
As part of a year in which it seemed that everything that could go wrong, did, the Mets lost to the Braves at Shea, 6-1, thanks to a multiple-miscue scenario.

The botched handling of a popup by catcher Ron Hodges in the third inning led to an eventual bases-clearing triple by Murrell, who subsequently scored when shortstop Ted Martinez mismanaged the relay throw.

Donn Clendenon- Mets at Pirates, September 22, 1965
It doesn't appear that The New York Times even covered the game, somewhat understandable since the Mets were 48-105 at this time, so we relied on the Valley Independent of Monessen, Pa., to assist us.

The Mets trailed the Pirates, 2-1 in the fifth inning, with the bases loaded and two outs against starter Tug McGraw. The Mets had already committed an error and a passed ball, so it wasn't exactly a promising inning for them when Clendenon, then with Pittsburgh, came up.

Clendenon singled cleanly to center and the Mets made two more errors on the play, allowing four runs to score. One was by third baseman Charley Smith. The other was by McGraw.

According to the UPI photos in the Valley Independent, the following happened:

"A comedy of errors gets underway in last night's game when Mets Charlie Smith misses ball as Clemente slides into third. Clemente then raced home but missed the plate. Smith's throw to home plate eludes catcher Gus(??) Goossen so Clemente returns to touch plate. Then Donn Clendenon streaks for home as pitcher Tug McGraw covers, but misses Goossen's throw, allowing Clendenon to score on a "grand slam" single which provided four runs in the fifth inning and eventually a 6-2 victory."

A game story on the same page, provided by UPI, has basically the same account (although it says Smith made the throw that McGraw missed), with the following fun addition, which served as the lead to the game story.

"Correspondence between friends. Dear Mets. We love you. Signed the Pittsburgh Pirates."

I should note that the Associated Press account of the play differs slightly, stating that McGraw's error came on a throw to third, trying to nail Clendenon. Can anyone provide further help?